Predictions!

Prognostication is an uncertain exercise, so I might as well go big.

The tabula rasa theory of human development is on its last legs. As with any gnostic dogma that no longer explains reality, its practitioners double down on their praxis, in a final ghost dance to revive the old pantheon and exorcise the new gods.

Thus, through the research of the distinguished-looking George Church, the old social lists and patents of nobility return.

George-Church

(Dr. Church appears to have a somewhat atomized family life, married to fellow professor Ting Wu with, alas, no children. He apparently never knew his mother, but his father seems to have had a pretty successful, rakish life).

Armed with genetic data and eugenic technology, ambitious families will encourage marriages at fourth and greater degrees of consanguinity. The science shows a U-shaped distribution on the merits and demerits of cousin marriage, with recessive pathologies clustering below third degrees of consanguinity, and positive social outcomes (larger families, more intact marriages) beyond the fourth and greater degrees where the genetic risk practically disappears.

This development parallels the decline of the multicultural democracies into chaos and fiscal and military overreach. As their governments become increasingly incapable of maintaining the civil order, people will switch their support to new institutions, syndicates, mostly commercial in nature, but with credal and ethno-cultural aspects as well. The syndicates will draft legal codes and negotiate sojourners’ rights. Equity and membership rights and, importantly, leadership in the syndicates will pass by inheritance, motivating strategic marriages and adoptions.

That’s the optimistic prediction, of course.

Not so far back, I wrote that monarchy was impossible without a cataclysm, an event that wiped the slate so clean it left room for adventurer-conquerors to seize territorial power and bequeath it to their families. I’ve changed my mind as demotic chaos creates, effectively, a new frontier for adventurer-conquerors to exploit.

Like I used to say all the way back in my libertarian days, neo-feudalism is coming, whether the statists or the anarcho-capitalists want it or not.

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